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Thread: Follow the Money, Monday, June 27, 2016 Early Start Edition

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    Follow the Money, Monday, June 27, 2016 Early Start Edition

    Because the Weekend Economists thread got so long (50 entries) I'm spilling over here...I do recommend You All wade through the WEE first, since there is some method to the madness...

    Revolts of the Debtors: From Socrates to Ibn Khaldun by MICHAEL HUDSON

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/06/...o-ibn-khaldun/

    Last week I attended a wonderful conference in the university town of Tübingen, Germany, on “Debt: The First 3500 Years,” to bring ancient historians together to discuss David Graeber’s book Debt: The First 5000 Years.

    I was enlightened by two papers in particular. Doctoral fellow Moritz Hinsch from Berlin collected what Socrates (470-399 BC) and other Athenians wrote about debt, and the conference’s organizer, Prof. John Weisweiler, presented the new view of late imperial Rome as being still a long way from outright serfdom. The 99 Percent were squeezed, but “the economy” grew – in a way that concentrated growth in the hands of the One Percent. In due course this bred popular resentment that spread in the form of debtor revolts, not only in the Roman Empire but that of Iran as well, leading to religious reforms to limit the charging of interest and self-indulgent greed in general...

    Socrates’ views on whether bad debts should be paid

    In Book I of Plato’s Republic (380 BC), Socrates discusses the morality of repaying debts. Cephalus, a businessman living in the commercial Piraeus district, states the typical ethic that it is fair and just to pay back what one has borrowed or received.[1] Socrates replies that it would not be just to return weapons to a man who has turned into a lunatic. Because of the consequences, paying back the debt would be the wrong thing to do.

    At issue is not the micro-economic morality of paying a debt, but how this act affects society. If a madman is intent on murder, returning his weapon to him will enable him to commit unjust acts. The morality of paying back all debts is not necessarily justice. We need to take the overall consequences into account...A similar logic may apply to today’s debate over whether Greece should pay back the IMF and European Central Bank (ECB) for the money that they have provided since 2010 to save bondholders from losses on loans (largely by French and German banks). The terms oblige the Greek government to pay in full instead of writing down debts to reflect the actual ability to pay.

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    Wolf Richter: Worst “Zombie States” in America “Deteriorate Faster, Further”

    YVES SMITH: Of course, if we still had revenue sharing, implemented by the great American socialist Richard Nixon, the weak states would be in better shape. Nixon recognized that the Federal government could collect taxes more efficiently but that state and local governments had a better grasp of their priorities and needs. He had the Federal government gives money to states with oversight to prevent corruption and self-dealing. The argument for revenue sharing became even more compelling after Nixon took the US off the gold standard in 1971, but Reagan abolished the program.

    http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/23/wor...aster-further/

    During the Financial Crisis, it was California that made the headlines with “out-of-money dates” and fancy-looking IOUs with which it paid its suppliers. The booms in the stock market and the startup scene – the state is desperately hooked on capital-gains tax revenues – but also housing, construction, etc. sent a flood of moolah into the state coffers. Now legislators are working overtime to spend this taxpayer money. Gov. Jerry Brown is brandishing recession talk to keep them in check. Everyone knows: the next recession and stock-market swoon will send California back to square one.

    Now Puerto Rico is in the headlines. It’s not even a state. And it’s relatively small. But look at wild gyrations by the federal government and Congress to deal with it, to let the island and its bondholders somehow off the hook.

    But Puerto Rico may just be the model. Big states are sliding deeper into financial troubles, particularly New Jersey, Connecticut, and Illinois.

    These three states hold the top positions in the “Zombie Index” that Bill Bergman, Director of Research at Truth in Accounting, developed two years ago. California has dropped to 7th place. Whew!!!

    The Zombie Index for the 50 states is based on three main factors:

    1. Truth in Accounting’s “Taxpayer Burden” measure of state finances
    2. The timeliness of state financial reporting
    3. And the share of total debt effectively “hidden” off the balance sheet.


    This “taxpayer burden” is not a reflection of actual state taxes paid, but of the state’s total liabilities per taxpayer – such as outstanding bonds and loans and off-balance-sheet liabilities such as for pensions...

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    I felt some relief that Michigan wasn't on the Zombie list...and then realized that was because Michigan is in the Morgue, with a toe tag already...



    from comments at Naked Capitalism:

    All of the states on the “Zombie States” on Top 10 list except for KY & AL, are states that send way more in taxes to the Federal Government than they get back. Eventually the blood & entitlement vampire states that are all Republican bastions of idiocy will have to get cut off. If NJ could get back most of what it sends to the Dept. of Treasury, the state would be fixable…
    I believe Michigan is also one of the net donors to the USA tax income, but now, with the Flint crisis, balance may be returning between taxes paid and government assistance rendered...hell of a way to go about it, IMO.

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    Very good.. Thank you
    @LiberalArkie

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    Brexit: The Crisis Begins

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/...is-begins.html

    British voters delivered a stunning repudiation to their political and economic elites by voting to leave the European Union by a margin of 52 to 48. The fallout has already started. The pound is down by over 11%, and some experts anticipate that it could ultimately fall to as low as 1.05 to the dollar, its low in the early 1980s sterling crisis. British bank stock prices have fallen by roughly 25%. Safe haven investments have spiked: gold is up 6% and the yen has traded through 100 to the dollar. The Nikkei fell by 8% and US stock futures suggest that the Dow could open down by 600 points.

    But Brexit represents something much bigger than an economic or political crisis. Although UKIP played shamelessly on the anti-immigration fears, many of the Leave campaigners argued for national sovereignity and self-determination. And the Northern areas that came in strongly for Leave have been left behind as London and environs prospered. It is simplistic, although it will nevertheless be a popular stance among the elites, to depict the Leave vote as yet another proof that technocrats should be in charge. In fact, the very reason that so many UK citizens rejected the dire warnings of what was in store for them if they dared press the red Leave button was that those experts devised and implemented the neoliberal policies that have increased inequality, reduced their economic stability and accelerated political and social change.

    Brexit is a crippling blow to the neoliberal order of unfettered trade and capital flows, and citizens being reduced to being consumers who have to fend for themselves in markets, and worse, increasingly isolated worker who are at the mercy of capitalists who are ever more determined to reduce labor costs and hoard the benefits of productivity gains for themselves. Whether they recognize it or not, and we’ll find out over the coming months and years how well different Leave voters saw the choice they made, they have chosen a lower standard of living as a price worth paying for a hope of more control over their destinies. Sadly, these voters are likely to realize the first part of that equation rather than the second...

    Just a bit too negative, don't you think, Yves? When change happens, it has an avalanche effect: change begets change, begets more change...and when the People are in charge of the change, the change benefits them.

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    Brexit: Fear, Loathing, and Anger on Both Sides of the Channel YVES SMITH

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/...e-channel.html

    The UK’s and Europe’s leaders have shifted into the crisis mode of urgent, high-staked weekend meetings. But rather than making progress, these officials have instead exposed gaping differences among the Continental powers and chaos at the top Britain’s Conservative and Labor parties.

    The UK’s political class is reeling from the Brexit vote. The major players in both parties now face having to manage a process that will prove to be difficult and stressful, where numerous details that will have profound long-term implications need to be sorted out. Even in a best case scenario, the results will make a lot of citizens less well off, and it won’t be just people working in the City who can arguably afford it (for instance, a recession is pretty much a given). This is not an attractive project for a career politician.

    Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, who had a weak hold on his position even before the Brexit vote, beat back an insurrection by Hilary Benn, the shadow foreign minister and son of the Socialist icon Tony Benn. Corbyn removed Benn from the shadow cabinet. However, given that many Labor MPs want to hold Corbyn accountable for the Leave vote by virtue of making a lackluster case for Remain, he’s only fought off an immediate threat.* (In fairness, a must-read Guardian article we featured yesterday found that voters in the north and west, where Leave won, weren’t interested in what either party was telling them).

    The Conservatives are also in disarray. One of the unintended side effects of Cameron’s 90 day caretaker government is that the jockeying for leadership and backstabbing may continue for longer than if he had resigned immediately. From the Telegraph story Tories at War:

    The Tory civil war over the EU referendum escalated after friends of David Cameron accused Boris Johnson and Michael Gove of leading a “mendacious” campaign and “corroding” trust in politics.

    The Prime Minister’s allies claimed his “project fear” warnings that Brexit would bring economic disaster were proving to be a “reality” as the bitter feuding from the referendum campaign reached new heights…

    Anna Soubry, a pro-EU business minister, told Channel 4 News: “A lot of people suddenly realised that project fear is turning into project reality. We are doing everything we can as a Government but the reality is starting to dawn. Now we have got to get a plan in place, and of course we have got to get the right leader in place…

    Another senior source close to Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne said: “It is painfully obvious that Boris and Gove have no plan, no idea what they are doing, and never expected to win.”

    However eurosceptics said that the concerns of an economic shock were exaggerated. They pointed to the fact that the pound rallied on Friday after falling to a 30 year low and markets recovered.
    As our Richard Smith observed:

    Corbyn thinks politics is all about committee resolutions and not sharing platforms, and his soft-left intra party opposition just say “tut” when snarled at by working class white men who are furious about immigration and austerity. Right now, Labour has no program to tackle this immigration issue *at all*, neither socialist, or social-democratic. Non-austerity economics has no traction either.
    Not only is there no immediate plan, but as the Financial Times stressed on yesterday, in Brexiters’ very different visions of post-EU Britain, the Leave side is not united.

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    Brexit: a Victory for Britain’s Working Class by NAUMAN SADIQ

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/06/...working-class/

    There is an essential condition in the European Union’s charter of union according to which the under-developed countries of Europe that joined the EU allowed free movement of goods (free trade) only on the reciprocal condition that the developed countries would allow the free movement of labor.

    What’s obvious in this condition is the fact that free trade only benefits the countries that have a strong manufacturing base; and free movement of workers only favors the under-developed countries where labor is cheap.

    While joining the EU, Britain compromised on the rights of its working class in order to protect the interests of the industrialists, because free trade with the rest of the EU countries spurred British exports.

    I am of the opinion that the British working classes must have overwhelmingly voted in favor of Brexit, because after Britain’s entry into EU and when the Schengen Agreement on abolishing the internal border checks among the EU member states became effective in 1995, the cheaper labor force of Eastern Europe flooded the markets of Western Europe; and consequently the wages of indigenous British labor force dropped and it also became difficult for them to find jobs because the foreigners were willing to do the same job for lesser pay, hence raising the level of unemployment among the British workers and consequent discontentment with the EU.

    The biggest incentive for the British working class to vote for Brexit is that the East European workers will have to leave Britain after its exit from the EU, and the jobs will once again become available with better wages to the indigenous workforce.

    No d'uh!

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    The Imminent Dodging Of Brexit - A Gift For The Fascist Right

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/06...ist-right.html

    We claimed that BREXIT - is not gonna happen and pointed to a propaganda campaign (see further examples in the comments there) launched to reverse the Brexit votes. Within that campaign two memes get pushed:

    First, young voters feel cheated of their future because some old, grumpy people voted for Brexit. Well, these young voters of age 18 to 24, tearfully interviewed by the BBC and Channel 4, constitute only 5% of the electorate. Only a third of them voted at all, 70% of those 1/3 of 5% for "Remain". This is a small part, and a not very interested one, of the population. Who are they to deserve some special attendance?

    The second meme pushed is the "success" of some petition for a #ReverseBrexit vote someone set up on the UK parliament website. It now has more than a million "signatures". That is a lot in a short time frame. But wait, any dog on the Internet can "sign" that petition provided it has some throw-away email address. I, a German in Germany, "signed" to test the procedure. It took me about 30 seconds.

    This propaganda campaign will not have any tangible success, but it sets a certain atmosphere which then will be used to stall the exit process...

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    The #ReverseBrexit Campaign Has Begun

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/06...ign-began.html

    The British people voted to exit the EU. But, as I said, Brexit ain't gonna happen

    .. the powers that are will not allow Britain to exit the European Union.
    Immediately after the result was announced the campaign for a "revote", which would give the voters the chance to correct their wrong views, began. Here is a glimpse. First a BBC editor:

    Louisa Compton @louisa_compton
    With leave voters in Manchester for BBCNews -most told us they woke up thinking "what have I done?" & didn't actually expect the uk to leave

    Retweets 2,209 Likes 882

    2:52 AM - 24 Jun 2016
    "See, the people did not really mean it," says the official mouthpiece of the ruling powers.

    "Most told us," is of course always fine to manipulate opinions. But "most" of what?

    Here is another obvious spin:

    The Independent @Independent
    So many people are signing the petition for a second #EUref the government site has crashed -> Brexit: Petition for second EU referendum so popular the government site's crashing

    Retweets 1,589 Likes 610

    1:00 AM - 24 Jun 2016
    That Independent tweet did wonders. The petition site was suddenly so "crashed" and "inaccessible" that only 15,710 people signed on within just the last hour...The powers that are on both sides of the Atlantic will use all means to reverse the decision of the British people. Or to make it irrelevant. The high-powered, opinion leading media tweets above are just the start of the #ReverseBrexit campaign. It will intensify and blare through all channels.

    It will require diligence and hard work by the majority that voted for Brexit to see their will fulfilled.

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    After Brexit, Who Will Lead The New Global Rebellion? Richard (RJ) Eskow

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-esk..._10656874.html

    Things are changing. A major crack has appeared in the edifice of globalization, and the neoliberal order that has dominated the world’s economy since the end of World War II is now in danger.

    That’s not necessarily a bad thing, by any means. But poisonous weeds are just as likely as green shoots to grow up through those cracks. To paraphrase John F. Kennedy: Those who make constructive evolution impossible may be making destructive devolution inevitable.

    We now know that Great Britain, itself an amalgam of older nations, is divided. England and Wales voted to leave Europe, while Scotland, Northern Ireland, and ethnically diverse London voted to remain.

    This vote was a stunning rejection of Great Britain’s political establishment. “Leave” prevailed despite opposition from all three major political parties. Prime Minister David Cameron, who will now step down, called on voters to “Remain.” So did socialist Jeremy Corbyn, the most left-wing Labour leader in a generation. Barack Obama crossed the Atlantic to stand beside Cameron and offer his support.

    Voters rejected all of them.

    The uprising has begun. The question now is, who will lead it going forward?

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    VW to pay over $10 billion for U.S. emissions scandal

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-vo...-idUSKCN0Z9235

    Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) will pay more than $10 billion to settle claims by nearly 500,000 owners stemming from its U.S. diesel emissions cheating scandal and fund efforts to offset pollution, three sources briefed on the agreement said on Thursday.

    Speaking on condition of anonymity, due to court-imposed gag rules, a source said that owners will receive an average of $5,000 in compensation along with the estimated value of the vehicles as of September 2015, before the scandal erupted. Owners would also receive the compensation if they choose to have the vehicles repaired, assuming U.S. regulators approve a fix at a later date.

    As part of the settlements, Volkswagen will to help boost zero emissions vehicles and introduce a program to offset excess diesel pollution from the offending vehicles.

    The settlement is valued at $10.3 billion in documents outlining some of the complex settlements, the source added.

    Another source said that figure does not include part of the environmental costs, which will raise the overall settlement total. The source would not disclose the overall total...

    All that, and Brexit, too. It's a sad day to be a European.

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    Brexit Backlash Against EU, A Revolt Against Elites

    https://www.popularresistance.org/ne...gainst-elites/

    ...The Brexit vote showed how out of touch the elites are with the lives of the people in England. They are unaware how austerity, unfair incomes and lack of wealth makes life unbearable for many. The same is true throughout the globalized economy, which is rigged for the 1% around the world. As the elites seek to protect themselves, at the cost of everyone else, it is time for the Left to escalate its actions against austerity, poverty and extreme inequality.

    The popular movement for economic, racial and environmental justice must seize the moment to demonstrate that the real issues are economic and classist; that the economy rigged by and for the transnational corporations and the investor class is robbing people, treating them as wage slaves with no power and ignoring their hopes while highlighting their lack of political power. This is an opportunity for the movement, but the narrative must be reshaped to be about living standards, pensions, wages and wealth of the people...

    And political power, as well. Democracy in its purest form: People are NOT Disposable!

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    A $50 Million Heist Unleashes High-Stakes Showdown in Blockchain

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-in-blockchain

    There’s a high-stakes showdown roiling the techno-utopian world of blockchains and cryptocurrencies.

    And the outcome, to some, could ultimately have lasting consequences for the future of modern finance.

    The story involves the Ethereum blockchain, an online ledger that records transactions and lets users trade ether, the second-most popular cryptocurrency, behind bitcoin. A key part of Ethereum also allows people to put smart contracts -- those written in computer code -- on its network. Last week, the Decentralized Autonomous Organization, a leaderless venture-capital fund and the highest-profile project using Ethereum, was hacked. The hackers exploited a feature of DAO’s smart contracts to siphon off roughly $50 million of its members’ contributions to the fund.

    The debate now is how, or whether, to get the money back. Some, including Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin, propose tweaking the blockchain to neutralize the hack and avert the DAO’s collapse. But a small and vocal group of purists say that would be akin to rewriting history and undermine a fundamental tenet of blockchain technology: its immutability. That once a transaction is recorded in the ledger, it can’t be changed.

    “The governing individuals that created Ethereum are in a tough situation -- either they change the Ethereum blockchain to reverse the theft from the DAO and deal with questions of immutability, or allow thieves to get away with their crime for the sanctity of the young blockchain,” said Gil Luria, an analyst at Wedbush Securities Inc.
    If that doesn't give you a headache, nothing will. Civil engineers are certified...to reduce the chance that people die from their mistakes...perhaps it's time that software engineers were also certified, so that people were not robbed of their funds in financial engineering.

    Whatever happens, Union Square Ventures’ Albert Wenger says there’s another, perhaps even more fundamental, lesson to be learned from the current DAO crisis: that’s the danger of putting too much trust and confidence in the ability of coldly logical code to replace laws and regulation.

    “Things will go wrong,” Wenger wrote in a blog post. “And then we need a way to deal with it that lives outside the technology.”

    Sounds a lot like the European Union, doesn't it?

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    Pound’s Record Loss Seen Just the Beginning With U.K. in Turmoil

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...u-k-in-turmoil

    The big question for pound traders may have been answered, but the outlook for the currency is murkier than ever.

    Sterling dropped 1.3 percent to $1.3509 at 4:06 a.m. in Tokyo on Monday. That extended an 8.1 percent tumble to $1.3679 on Friday, the biggest drop on record and almost double the 4.1 percent decline on Black Wednesday in 1992, when the U.K. was forced out of Europe’s exchange-rate mechanism.

    Sterling suffered a record one-day loss on Friday after Britain voted to leave the European Union, pushing it to the lowest level since 1985. Investors face months of uncertainty -- the mechanics and terms of the U.K.’s exit are yet to be determined, and the nation’s political leadership during the negotiations is unclear after Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation. Scotland is agitating for independence and the opposition Labour Party has been thrown into chaos by the historic vote.

    Analysts say all this spells further losses for the pound...

    Silly rabbits! There's no reason to panic like this! May I offer the Brits. some of their own, home-grown advice?


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    George Soros, the billionaire who 'broke' the Bank of England, wins big from Brexit

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7102481.html

    The 85-year-old hedge fund manager had warned Brexit would make some people 'very rich' but 'most voters considerably poorer'

    The billionaire who predicted Brexit would bring about “Black Friday” and a crisis for the finances of ordinary people appears to have profited hugely from the UK’s surprise exit from the EU.

    George Soros is widely known as the man who “broke” the Bank of England in 1992, when he bet against the pound and made a reported £1.5bn.

    Although the exact amount Mr Soros has gained after Brexit is not known, public filings show he doubled his bets earlier this year that stocks would fall...

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    Deutsche Bank: "There's No Escaping The Fact That This Is A Class War"

    Just a snip. More and a cool 3-minute video at the link.

    "So there's no escaping the fact that this is a class war. Whether its globalization, immigration, inequality, poor economic growth or a combination of all of them it's quite clear from this and other anti-establishment movements that the status quo can't last in a democracy. Eventually you'll have a reaction."

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...fact-class-war

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    Hey everyone, just in case I'm not the last to know, everyone's moving over to the new JPR site, at http://jackpineradicals.com .

    You may have to re-set your password over there.
    "Nothing is inevitable, except defeat for those who give up without a fight." – Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea (1961), script by Irwin Allen & Charles Bennett

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